Turnout is up and nobody can agree why
Advance polls broke records in districts that have not been competitive in a generation.
The advance numbers landed on a Sunday evening and immediately broke every model that campaigns had been running for months.
Districts written off as safe saw queues at nine in the morning. Districts everyone was watching saw ordinary traffic.
Three competing explanations
One camp credits a registration drive. Another points to a single local issue. A third argues the weather, sincerely and with data.
Pollsters caution that high advance turnout sometimes just means people voted earlier, not that more of them voted at all.
The final count will settle it, and every campaign is quietly rewriting its ground plan in the meantime.
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